Guosheng Securities released a research report sayingCrashbandicootgbagamesTo maintain the ideal car-W (02015) "Buy" rating, select the supplier to bear 50% and the gross profit margin 20%. The estimated net profit of non-GAAP is 148x196 / 29.1 billion yuan, and the net profit margin of non-GAAP is 8%.Crashbandicootgbagames.3% / 7Crashbandicootgbagames.9% / 8.1%, with a target price of HK $151. The bank estimates that the company will sell about 60x90 / 1.31 million vehicles from 2024 to 2026, with a total revenue of 1791 Universe 2482 / 359.9 billion yuan. Future profit changes depend on the extent of commitment of suppliers in this price reduction. The bank calculates that the company's 2024 gross profit margin may be 18%, 20%, 22%, based on the assumption that the supplier bears 0%, 50%, 100%, and 100%.
The main points of Guosheng Securities are as followsCrashbandicootgbagames:
Q1 sales reached 80,000 units.
Ideal car released a new car MEGA on March 1, which was affected by high pricing, public opinion, lack of energy and other factors, new car sales were lower than previously expected. In late March, the founder of ideal issued an internal letter reflecting on the current problems, saying that he would "patiently run the ideal MEGA at a pace from 0 to 1" and "reduce sales expectations and desires and return to healthy growth". In March, ideal car sales were 28984, up 39% year-on-year and 43% month-on-month. Q1 delivered a total of 80400 cars, an increase of 53% over the same period last year, and sales grew steadily.
The new car is about to appear on the market, which is expected to further boost growth.
Model end: the ideal L6 was officially released on April 18, and the price of the deluxe SUV,L6Pro/Max version of the five seats in the positioning family is 249800 / 279800 respectively. On April 21, the cumulative order of ideal Guanxuan exceeded 10,000 units in 72 hours. In addition, ideal Motor is expected to launch three pure electric models in the second half of the year, and the company will have three series of eight models by the end of 2024, forming a perfect product matrix. Sales side: taking into account the rhythm of pure electric models such as the Mega, the bank has appropriately lowered its sales forecast and expects sales to grow by 50% to 70% year-on-year in 2024, and is expected to sell 56-640000 vehicles for the whole year.
Lay the foundation for the intensive launch of pure electric models, and overcharge network planning is radical.
As of March 11, 351 ideal overcharging stations (1518 charging piles) have been put into use, mainly in the high-speed service area. According to the plan released by the official Wechat of ideal Automobile, the company aims to build 2700 overcharging stations (20000 charging piles) nationwide by the end of 2024, of which 2000 overcharging stations (17000 charging piles) will be built in cities. to achieve more than 60 per cent of urban coverage in first -, second-and third-tier cities, and to build 700 overcharging stations (3000 charging piles) at a high speed to cover more than 70 per cent of national highways.
The price strategy is sound, and the profit in 2024 is still expected to maintain a high level.
Gross margin side: in the face of more fierce market competition, the company lowered the price of L7/L8/L9/MEGA cars by 18000-30, 000 on April 22nd. Looking to the future, the company is still expected to achieve a higher gross profit level through supply chain cost reduction, R & D cost reduction, scale cost reduction, production efficiency improvement and so on. The bank expects the company's gross profit margin to be between 15% and 20% in 2024. Cost rate: as the revenue scale continues to increase and the cost rate is expected to improve as a whole, the bank expects the company's R & D expenditure to be about 140-16 billion yuan in 2024, and the SG&An expense rate is expected to fall below 7%.
Risk tips: vehicle development and sales are not as expected risk, upstream parts supply fluctuation risk, intelligent driving technology iteration is not as expected risk.